$20 Per Gallon How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better edition by Christopher Steiner Politics Social Sciences eBooks
Download As PDF : $20 Per Gallon How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better edition by Christopher Steiner Politics Social Sciences eBooks 
Imagine an everyday world in which the price of gasoline (and oil) continues to go up, and up, and up. Think about the immediate impact that would have on our lives.
Of course, everybody already knows how about gasoline has affected our driving habits. People can't wait to junk their gas-guzzling SUVs for a new Prius. But there are more, not-so-obvious changes on the horizon that Chris Steiner tracks brilliantly in this provocative work.
Consider the following societal changes people who own homes in far-off suburbs will soon realize that there's no longer any market for their houses (reason nobody wants to live too far away because it's too expensive to commute to work). Telecommuting will begin to expand rapidly. Trains will become the mode of national transportation (as it used to be) as the price of flying becomes prohibitive. Families will begin to migrate southward as the price of heating northern homes in the winter is too pricey. Cheap everyday items that are comprised of plastic will go away because of the rising price to produce them (plastic is derived from oil). And this is just the beginning of a huge and overwhelming domino effect that our way of life will undergo in the years to come.
Steiner, an engineer by training before turning to journalism, sees how this simple but constant rise in oil and gas prices will totally re-structure our lifestyle. But what may be surprising to readers is that all of these changes may not be negative - but actually will usher in some new and very promising aspects of our society.
Steiner will probe how the liberation of technology and innovation, triggered by climbing gas prices, will change our lives. The book may start as an alarmist's exercise.... but don't be misled. The future will be exhilarating.
$20 Per Gallon How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better edition by Christopher Steiner Politics Social Sciences eBooks
$20 Per Gallon struck me as an elaborate "thought experiment", a kind of giant "what if....?" exercise. However, it is a completely worthwhile thought experiment to engage in. I thought most of what the author theorizes makes perfect sense. I am fairly simpatico with most of his thoughts, and personally would like to live long enough to see the demise of the internal combustion engine. He does seem a bit too optimistic for my taste, however. Yes, ultimately, expensive fuel will undoubtedly make things better for people (cleaner air, for one thing; and we can finally say good riddance to getting involved in hostile oil-producing countries). In the meantime however, things would be very tough and grim indeed, with massive price increases in just about everything.One thing for sure that would happen is that the price of beef would sky-rocket. Here's why: All the corn and grain currently fed to cows would be turned instead into ethanol fuel. Fewer cows, less beef and dairy, and very expensive beef (and milk, and ice cream), and also probably very expensive chicken as well, because most of their feed is corn-based. So, vegans should rejoice at expensive gasoline, which will do what no amount of PETA commercials or anti-meat propaganda could possibly do, which is end meat-eating as we know it. (Sure, the wealthy will always be able to afford meat, the way they can afford yachts and the rest of us cannot.)
Personally, I think gasoline is seriously under-valued in this country. The 18-cent per gallon gas tax is ridiculously low, it hasn't changed at all since gasoline was $1 per gallon. Why the tax wasn't pegged as a percent of the cost of gasoline is beyond my comprehension. Perhaps if the federal government instituted a 25 percent gas tax, and spent the money on building great public transit and "super trains", then the future shock that will undoubtedly occur will not be as disruptive. Unfortunately, most cultures, and certainly the American culture is much more reactive than pro-active. We are in for a bumpy ride.
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$20 Per Gallon How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better edition by Christopher Steiner Politics Social Sciences eBooks Reviews
I thought this was a great book, even in the parts I disagreed with. It made me rethink a lot of things. For example, as oil prices go up, so does the price of asphalt. It's not just a matter of trying to get more miles per gallon. The highway system will become more expensive to maintain.
The main thing I disagreed with was the part about container shipping (which is a business I work in). Container shipping will stay around because it is the cheapest way to move goods in bulk. It IS energy-efficient. The ships and ports can be made more energy-efficient over time. Steiner does not exactly say this is not so but glosses over it. If you ordered something from that is made in China (not this book but perhaps some toy) and had it express-shipped to you, the energy costs of getting it from the container port to 's warehouse to your house will be more than the cost of getting it across the Pacific Ocean in a container ship.
Well documented. I agree with most that is stated, exception, this author is too dependent of nuclear energy. He does not deal with the disposal problem. Recent events in Japan have set nuclear energy back 10 years.... Book written in 2008 and according to his calculations, gasoline should be over $10.00 by now, so I think the timing is not quite right. Still a good read, I recommend to all those driving big SUV's.
The quantum physicist Niels Bohr once said, "Predictions are always difficult, especially about the future." So just what will our future look like? Christopher Steiner takes a crack at it in $20 Per Gallon, How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better (Grand Central Publishing, 2009). His analysis is based on the phenomenon of peak oil, meaning that global oil production has peaked and will decline in the future. He then predicts what will happen as gas prices rise in response, going in increments from $6 to $20 a gallon.
It's a good news, bad news story. For instance, at $8 per gallon the cost of fuel causes big airlines to start going out of business, leaving only perennial favorites Southwest and Jet Blue as major carriers. The good news is that high-speed electric trains become the main mode for long distance travel, linking major cities throughout the country. And as a side bonus, few people fly making parking at airports easier.
Then at around $12 per gallon people can't afford to commute long distances any more and distant suburbs become ghost towns. But in the cities they move to, new zoning and building codes are passed making the cities more vibrant. Neighborhoods are revitalized as big box stores like Home Depot disappear, replaced by local stores, corner bakeries and butcher shops.
By $20 a gallon, our lives will have changed for the better. Fewer miles are driven, but pounds melt off our bodies as we walk and bicycle more. There is less air pollution and skies become clearer. The decline in global competition allows US manufacturing to experience a renaissance, creating more jobs and higher tax revenues. Given high transportation costs, the globalized seafood market shrinks dramatically, allowing fisheries to heal and renew.
At this point, society has adjusted to a post-fossil fuel world and the price of gas has become a non-issue - hardly anyone is buying it. The book thus presents an exciting and reassuring picture of our future. In Steiner's analysis, serious problems will be met with new technology and wise governmental decision-making. We will live differently but we will live well. This sounds great and I think that some of Steiner's world will and should come true.
However, the analysis has some shortcomings. First, a rise in the price of gasoline may not be so inevitable, given that the cost of fuel is self-regulating. As the price of gas goes up, we buy less causing prices to decline and re-stabilize. In fact, some experts assert that if the price of gas goes up much from its current level, perhaps around $6 per gallon, the economy could collapse. So projecting $20 per gallon may be unrealistic; but that's primarily a technical point.
Second, life is much more difficult to predict than just looking at the price of gasoline. Other factors such as exploding world population, climate change and a highly unstable global economy will also have their effects. Gas prices will be just one of many issues to deal with. For example, Steiner predicts that mass transit will increase. But a coastal city can't build a subway system if the city is underwater from rising sea levels. In fact, the city may no longer exist.
Third, the book is overly optimistic about the ability of technology to provide substitutes for oil. The Post Carbon Institute claims that there is no known technological fix for diminishing oil supplies and we will eventually need to operate with perhaps 10-20% of our current level of energy consumption. Rather than alternative energy sources saving the day, "powering down" is much more likely to be in our future.
In spite of these shortcomings, the book has an important underlying message we can still be OK if we run out of accessible oil. But will our lives actually change for the better? That depends. If we rely on politicians to respond rapidly and make rational decisions, we may have a long wait a-coming. Congress can't even tie its own shoestrings, let alone take the bold and timely action necessary to deal with issues like peak oil and global warming.
No, the path to a better world will not come from the top down. It will come from the bottom up as we, the citizens, take the initiative to build stronger communities and demand necessary action from politicians. Over 300 transition towns around the world are attempting to do the former, including Transition West Marin, Sustainable Fairfax, Transition Sebastopol and others here in the North Bay.
In terms of demanding action, the ball's in our court. We need to elect politicians who have the vision, wisdom and guts to move us in a better direction. Steiner is right that our lives will change. Let's work together to make it a change for the better.
$20 Per Gallon struck me as an elaborate "thought experiment", a kind of giant "what if....?" exercise. However, it is a completely worthwhile thought experiment to engage in. I thought most of what the author theorizes makes perfect sense. I am fairly simpatico with most of his thoughts, and personally would like to live long enough to see the demise of the internal combustion engine. He does seem a bit too optimistic for my taste, however. Yes, ultimately, expensive fuel will undoubtedly make things better for people (cleaner air, for one thing; and we can finally say good riddance to getting involved in hostile oil-producing countries). In the meantime however, things would be very tough and grim indeed, with massive price increases in just about everything.
One thing for sure that would happen is that the price of beef would sky-rocket. Here's why All the corn and grain currently fed to cows would be turned instead into ethanol fuel. Fewer cows, less beef and dairy, and very expensive beef (and milk, and ice cream), and also probably very expensive chicken as well, because most of their feed is corn-based. So, vegans should rejoice at expensive gasoline, which will do what no amount of PETA commercials or anti-meat propaganda could possibly do, which is end meat-eating as we know it. (Sure, the wealthy will always be able to afford meat, the way they can afford yachts and the rest of us cannot.)
Personally, I think gasoline is seriously under-valued in this country. The 18-cent per gallon gas tax is ridiculously low, it hasn't changed at all since gasoline was $1 per gallon. Why the tax wasn't pegged as a percent of the cost of gasoline is beyond my comprehension. Perhaps if the federal government instituted a 25 percent gas tax, and spent the money on building great public transit and "super trains", then the future shock that will undoubtedly occur will not be as disruptive. Unfortunately, most cultures, and certainly the American culture is much more reactive than pro-active. We are in for a bumpy ride.
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